President Donald Trump has declared a ten-day postponement of the expected war with Iran and said that the move was as a directive of the Iranian government.
Nevertheless, the Iranian officials have promptly dismissed this argument saying that they had not sought any ceasefire. This diplomatic confusion has created confusion in the world on the true reasons of being on a pause. The Effects of War: The Aftermaths of War.
Although there has not been a full-scale war yet, the initial sparks have already struck the energy markets of the world and energy security structures. The most notable effects that have been registered are:
1. Crippled Infrastructure Energy infrastructure crippled: It is being reportedthat the Gulf nations have been hit by a drastic downturn in the production capacity of oil due to the attack made by Iran. The destruction of refining infrastructure has reduced production by about four-fifths or more.
The global market will lose about 11 million barrels of oil everyday according to French official Roland Lescure a disaster to the global supply chain.
2. Energy prices are climbing to record levels as this supply shock reaches to global inflationary pressure as oil continues to be the mainstay of international transport and industry. This is likely to cause an inflationary wave among the households all over the world.
3. The Dollar Currency Debate: A huge point of discussion domestically is the alleged plan by Trump to add his signature on U.S dollar bills (1-$100).
Although a signature does not represent an adjustment of the official purchasing power in normal commerce, it causes a colossal change in Numismatics (the study and collection of currency).
Being the 45 th and the 47 th president, the signed note will be a valuable historical artifact, and might fetch thousands of dollars at a private auction.
Are we winning the strategic standoff between China and the United States? In such a complicated game, strategic advantage, and not kinetic military benefits, represents victory:
Iran Leverage: Tehran has seemingly managed to show the world that it can bring down the entire world economy but does not have to resort to a direct war.
By disabling 40 percent of the Gulf refining capacity, this is a strong reminder to U.S allies.
Trump Strategy:
Trump on the other hand is employing the Delay Tactic to switch to domestic economic priorities.
He ensures that he has psychological pressure on Tehran by presenting himself as a leader who has no other alternative but diplomatic solutions and he is also ensuring that his political base is stable.
The status quo Reality: The majority of the analysts indicate that the present reality is that, at the moment,
Iran is at the dominant position in terms of energy leverage, and the U.S. is walking the fine line of assisting the allies in the Gulf region without causing recession that can lead to domestic instability.
Laws of an Anthropological Nature and the Future. Legally, the process of defacing currency (signing) is still grey.
Although it is illegal in the federal law to make the currency useless, the presidential signature has been regarded as a collectible mark. But there are still practical difficulties;
ATM machines and high speed sorting equipment will refuse tenders which are signed as changed.
To sum up, this ten-day window is a very decisive one that will either see the diplomacy win or the world will plunge into a long-term battle with the economic consequences that the world has never experienced.
The entire world market is on edge with the time running out.
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