Delegations from Iran and the United States have officially arrived in Islamabad, and as the world watches, the vast gap between the two sidesโ demands is becoming impossible to ignore. 10-points of Iran peace talks on the table With Iran reportedly pushing for a 10-point peace proposal and the United States standing firm on roughly 15 conditions, the atmosphere is incredibly tense.
The burning question remains: who is willing to give an inch, and what are the realistic chances of a breakthrough? When looking at potential concessions, Iran might show some flexibility regarding the Strait of Hormuz, perhaps by refraining from a total blockade or adjusting its financial demands.
They may even agree to enhanced nuclear inspections if it means gaining immediate relief from suffocating economic sanctions. However, it is clear that Tehranโs missile program remains a “red line” that they are unlikely to cross.
On the other side, the United States is in a difficult position. Washington may consider a phased, incremental lifting of sanctions to build trust, and there is even a slim chance of softening their stance on Lebanon. But make no mistake, the US will not tolerate an Iranian-controlled Strait of Hormuz or an unrestricted nuclear program. Trump threated iran but nothing did
The most viable path to an agreement seems to lie in the intersection of sanctions and nuclear non-proliferation. Rather than seeking an all-encompassing, single-stage deal, the two sides may lean toward a rolling, temporary ceasefire or a step-by-step approach to keep the dialogue alive.
If both sides refuse to budge, the chances of a successful outcome are likely below 30%. However, if meaningful compromise begins, that probability could climb toward 50%. Should global pressure continue to mount, we could even see a 60% likelihood of a concrete result.
Strategically, Iran appears poised to reap the most immediate benefits. Years of sanctions have left their economy desperate; even a partial release of frozen billions would provide a vital lifeline. Conversely, the US objective is far more complex.
Washington is looking to curb nuclear capabilities, neutralize missile threats, and limit Iranian regional influenceโall systemic issues that cannot be resolved overnight.
Time seems to be on Iran’s side, as the US economy remains sensitive to rising fuel prices and potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran is further bolstered by external support, including recent economic assurances from China.
For the Trump administration, the primary gain is stability. Amidst intense domestic political pressure, calming the markets by securing the maritime passage and avoiding a major conflict is a win.
President Trump is reportedly aiming for a deal that surpasses the previous one, though skepticism remains high.
Unlike the Obama-era negotiations, which were led by career diplomats and technical experts, the current US delegation is composed largely of business figures and associates. This shift has led many to question whether they can match the diplomatic precision of the past.
Ultimately, these negotiations are incredibly complex, with both sides fiercely defending their national interests. Yet, the most significant point of alignment is clear: neither party desires a protracted war, and that shared fear remains the greatest hope for a peaceful resolution.
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